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☆ A US productivity boom may explain how inflation slowed amid a strong economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-17 | by ( Bryan Mena | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

If productivity is strong, that means the US economy is doing more with less, or being more productive. Productivity is measured by dividing all the goods and services produced in the economy by every hour people worked. “But the economy did well, so that translated into higher productivity, supporting higher wage growth and fending off inflation from accelerating.”Last year’s productivity boom could also be a combination of all of the above. Still, it may be too soon to know if last year’s productivity burst was truly a transformative shift in the US economy. “Sometimes at the very end of an economic cycle, productivity can be boosted by cost-saving measures,” Goodwin of New York Life Investments said.

Persons: ” Lauren Goodwin, Mark Zandi, John Min, Austan Goolsbee, It’s, ” Min, ” Goodwin, ” Organizations: DC CNN, Labor Department, New York Life Investments, CNN, Microsoft, Meta, Citigroup, Monex, Federal Reserve, Chicago Fed, Bloomberg Locations: Washington

☆ Dollar falls as traders focus on data for Fed policy clues
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-08 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

The greenback initially bounced on Friday after data showed that U.S. employers hired 216,000 workers in December, above economists' expectations in a Reuters poll, while average hourly earnings rose 0.4%, which was also above expectations. The U.S. currency then dropped, however, as investors focused on some underlying factors in the jobs report that showed less strength. It declined further after a separate report showed the U.S. services sector slowed considerably in December, with a measure of employment dropping to the lowest level in nearly 3-1/2 years. The release on Thursday of the consumer price inflation report for December will be the main piece of economic data this week. Fed funds futures traders are pricing in rate cuts beginning in March, though the odds of a move that soon have fallen.

Persons: Helen, Raphael Bostic Organizations: Federal Reserve, greenback, Monex USA, New York Fed, Traders, Atlanta Fed Locations: U.S, Washington

The dollar index , which measures the currency against six major peers, slipped 0.1% to 103.37 and was headed for a monthly loss of more than 3%, its worst performance since November 2022. The market is also eyeing a rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Chinese purchasing managers' index (PMI) data. In other currencies, the euro was little changed against the dollar at $1.0937 . Against the yen, the dollar fell 0.4% to 148.885 yen . The dollar extended losses after data showed U.S. new home sales fell more than expected in October, dropping 5.6% to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 679,000 units.

Persons: ECB's Lagarde, Helen, Christine Lagarde's, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Samuel Indyk, Rae Wee, Toby Chopra, Mark Potter, Paul Simao Organizations: U.S, Federal Reserve, Monex USA, Fed, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Reserve Bank of New, Australian, greenback, New, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington, OPEC, Australia, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, New Zealand, China, New York, London, Singapore

☆ Dollar up after inflation data boost
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-13 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The employee of a currency exchange shop counts U.S. dollar banknotes in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico July 27, 2023. Data on Wednesday had shown U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in September amid higher costs for energy products and food. The dollar index , which measures the U.S. currency against six of its major peers, ticked up 0.11% to 106.63. Sweden's crown , edged up against both the dollar and euro after consumer price data came in higher-than-forecast, adding to risks that the Riksbank could raise rates further. Investors also digested producer and consumer prices data out of China on Friday that showed deflationary pressures were slightly stronger than expected.

Persons: Jose Luis Gonzalez, Helen, Jonas Goltermann, Patrick Harker, Adam Cole, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Brigid Riley, Samuel Indyk, Miral Fahmy, Mark Potter, Alexander Smith, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Federal, Reuters, PPI, Capital Economics, Fed, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, RBC, of Canada, Thomson Locations: Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, Israel, Gaza, Sweden's, China

The dollar index , which measures the currency's strength against a basket of six rivals, was down 0.31 % to 106.03 . The index rose as high as 106.98 earlier in the session after data showed U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000 jobs last month. The numbers for August were revised higher to show 227,000 jobs added instead of the previously reported 187,000. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast September payrolls rising by 170,000 jobs. The payrolls data showed monthly wage growth remained moderate, with average hourly earnings rising 0.2% after a similar gain in August.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, nonfarm, Karl Schamotta, Tony Welch, Helen, Corpay's Schamotta, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Chuck Mikolajczak, Rae Wee, Alun John, Marguerita Choy, Susan Fenton, Andrew Heavens Organizations: REUTERS, U.S, Reuters, Thomson Locations: U.S, Toronto, Atlanta, New York, Singapore, London

☆ Fragile yen is flat as intervention talk in focus
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-04 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

The index, however, remained within striking distance of a nearly 11-month high of 107.34 reached in the previous session. The Japanese currency was last flat at 149.06 per dollar, after unexpectedly surging nearly 2% at one point on Tuesday to 147.30, its strongest level in three weeks. The Bank of Japan's money market data showed on Wednesday that Japan likely did not intervene in the currency market a day earlier. Sterling climbed 0.3% to $1.2112, rebounding after falling to a nearly seven-month low of $1.20535 in the previous session. The decision sent the kiwi sliding more than 0.2% to a nearly one-month low of US$0.5871.

Persons: Helen, Masato Kanda, James Malcolm, Sterling Organizations: U.S ., ADP, U.S, Monex USA, Tokyo, Analysts, UBS, Federal Reserve, greenback, New Zealand Locations: U.S, Washington, Japan

☆ Dollar eases after Fed-spurred rise; yen stronger ahead of BOJ
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-21 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

[1/3] Euro, Hong Kong dollar, U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, pound and Chinese 100 yuan banknotes are seen in this picture illustration, January 21, 2016. The Japanese yen strengthened against the greenback before Friday's Bank of Japan policy announcement, while the pound and the Swiss franc slipped after the British and Swiss central banks kept rates unchanged. The BOJ will end its negative interest rate policy next year, the majority of economists said in a Reuters poll, as the market has begun to envisage the demise of its ultra-easy monetary settings. The pound fell to its lowest since March after the Bank of England held interest rates steady on Thursday, following a cooler-than-expected inflation report the previous day. Meanwhile, Sweden's Riksbank and Norway's central bank both raised rates by 25 basis points, in line with expectations.

Persons: Jason Lee, Helen, Powell didn't, BoE, Monex's, Brad Bechtel, Sweden's, bitcoin, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Sam Holmes, Shri Navaratnam, Sharon Singleton, Richard Chang Organizations: Hong, REUTERS, U.S, Federal Reserve, Friday's Bank of Japan, Swiss, British, Fed, Monex, ECB, Traders, FX, Jefferies, Bank of England, Swiss National Bank, Thomson Locations: Hong Kong, Swiss, Japan, Swedish, Norwegian

☆ Dollar rises to six-month high after US data; weak yen prompts warning
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The greenback recovered against most currencies after the data, with the euro and sterling hitting three-month lows and the yen touching session troughs. The euro and sterling fell to three-month lows after the data and were last flat at $1.0726 and down 0.5% at $1.2505 , respectively. Data showed the Institute for Supply Management (ISM)'s non-manufacturing PMI rose to 54.5 last month, the highest since February and up from 52.7 in July. Against the yen, the dollar trimmed losses, last down little changed at 147.69 yen. The dollar showed little reaction to the report.

Persons: Dado Ruvic, Helen, Susan Collins, Christopher Waller, Waller, Masato Kanda, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Samuel Indyk, Ankur Banerjee, Savio D'Souza, Alexandra Hudson, Josie Kao Organizations: REUTERS, Institute for Supply Management, Reuters, Monex USA, Federal, Fed, Boston, CNBC, Ministry of Finance, Thomson Locations: Washington, U.S, Kanda, London, Singapore

☆ US dollar recovers from inflation-related losses; yen slumps
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-10 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +4 min

The greenback climbed to five-week peaks against the yen of 144.735 , and last traded up 0.7% at 144.71 yen. The recovery of the dollar against both the euro and yen pushed the dollar index up 0.1% to 102.56 . Earlier in the session, the dollar dropped after data showed the consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.2% last month, matching the gain in June. Investors are also on the lookout for possible intervention by the Japan to lift the yen. In September, Japan intervened when the dollar rose above 145 yen, pushing the pair to around 140 yen as the Ministry of Finance bought the yen to weaken the dollar.

Persons: Florence Lo, Yen, Helen, It's, Francisco Federal Reserve Bank Mary Daly, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Alun John, Mark Potter, Andrea Ricci, Richard Chang Organizations: REUTERS, Monex USA, Francisco Federal Reserve Bank, Federal, Market, Fed, Labor Department, Analysts, Ministry of Finance, Thomson Locations: U.S, Washington, Japan, London

☆ Tumbling US dollar a boon to risk assets across the globe
▼ + stars: | 2023-07-14 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

NEW YORK, July 14 (Reuters) - Cooling U.S. inflation is accelerating a decline in the dollar, and risk assets around the world stand to benefit. Because the dollar is a linchpin of the global financial system, a wide range of assets stand to benefit if it continues falling. Raw materials, which are priced in dollars, become more affordable to foreign buyers when the dollar declines. "For markets, the weaker dollar and its underlying driver, weaker inflation, is a balm for everything, especially for assets outside the U.S.," said Alvise Marino, foreign exchange strategist at Credit Suisse. Reuters GraphicsIn the world of monetary policy, the dollar's decline may be a relief to some countries, as it removes the urgency for them to support their falling currencies.

Persons: Russell, Alvise Marino, Karl Schamotta, Paresh Upadhyaya, Upadhyaya, Kenneth Broux, Helen, pare, it's, Saqib Iqbal Ahmed, Dhara Ranasinghe, Ira Iosebashvili, Leslie Adler Organizations: YORK, U.S, Federal Reserve, Investment, Goldman Sachs, Credit Suisse, Treasury, Fed, Colombian, Kazakhstan tenge, Uruguayan, Reuters Graphics, Traders, Generale, stoke, Monex USA, Thomson Locations: U.S, Polish, Corpay, Kazakhstan, Japan, Swedish

The dollar made little progress as investors opted for riskier assets, with the Fed widely expected on Wednesday not to hike rates for the first time since January 2022. "Investors have been looking forward to a Fed pause in the rate hiking cycle since they started over a year ago. The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) added 202.78 points, or 1.53%, to 13,461.92 in its biggest one-day percentage gain since May 26. Traders are pricing in a roughly 75% chance of the Fed keeping rates steady, and a 25% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Given said a Fed hike "would likely be very dollar-positive as it would go against current market expectations."

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Price, Burns McKinney, McKinney, Sterling, Helen, Brent, Sinéad Carew, Gertrude Chavez, Dreyfuss, Elizabeth Howcroft, Andrew Heavens, Nick Zieminski, Lisa Shumaker Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, U.S, CPI, PPI Fed, Treasury, U.S . Federal Reserve, Brent, Consumer, Index, PPI, NFJ Investment, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Traders, Reserve Bank of Australia, Bank of Canada, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Monex USA, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Dallas, Washington

☆ Dollar higher as U.S. debt ceiling concerns keep traders nervous
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-23 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

The U.S. dollar hit a two-month high against a basket of currencies on Tuesday as a lack of progress in talks over increasing the U.S. debt limit hurt investors' appetite for risk-taking. "I think the dollar saw a modest boost today as stocks have declined, mostly due to the lack of progress on the debt ceiling deal," said John Doyle, vice president of trading and dealing at Monex USA. While most market participants expect a deal eventually, the delay in getting it done was keeping traders nervous, Doyle said. "The focus is slowly going back towards inflation and all this hawkish Fed speak we've been getting," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA in New York. "We're probably looking at a market that is repositioning itself for a little bit more dollar strength here as these Fed rate cut bets get pushed back a little bit further and higher for longer."

Persons: Joe Biden, John Doyle, Doyle, James Bullard, Neel Kashkari, we've, Edward Moya, Jerome Powell, Powell, Moya Organizations: U.S, Republicans, Monex USA, Fed, Traders Locations: New York

☆ Dollar edges up as markets await debt-ceiling talks, inflation data
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-09 | by ( Laura Matthews | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

"So I don't think that we're going to have a breakthrough today. And that might be why the dollar is a bit stronger." The release of closely watched U.S. inflation data on Wednesday is likely to set the tone for markets, after stronger-than-expected jobs data last week. "It's widely expected that we're going to get that quarter-basis-point hike, and then we'll see where they go from there," Doyle said. ========================================================Currency bid prices at 4:03PM (2003 GMT)Reporting by Rae Wee Editing by Shri NavaratnamOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

☆ Dollar rebounds as banking fears fade; yen falls on quarter-end flows
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, March 29 (Reuters) - The dollar rose against most major peers on Wednesday, reversing some of its recent declines, and gained sharply against the yen, which was volatile as the end of the Japanese fiscal year approaches. Improving risk sentiment and investor hopes that central banks can once again turn their attention toward fighting inflation was helping support the dollar, Given said. The dollar rose to a one-week high against the yen, which remained volatile in the run-up to the end of the Japanese fiscal year on Friday. "A decent amount of USD/JPY flow today is end of quarter related," Monex USA's Given said. The dollar was 1.37% higher at 132.71 yen .

☆ Dollar firmer as banking fears fade; yen sinks on quarter-end flows
▼ + stars: | 2023-03-29 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

"The dollar is trading mixed today with a bit of upside as global risk sentiment improves and central banks can turn their attention back toward inflation," Given said. The dollar rose to a one-week high against the yen , which remained volatile in the run-up to the end of the Japanese fiscal year on Friday. "A decent amount of USD/JPY flow today is end of quarter related," Monex USA's Given said. "Traders are concerned with real money outcomes at the moment, but as global risk sentiment continues to improve, JPY as a traditional haven looks less appealing," she said. The dollar was 1.03% higher at 132.275 yen.

☆ U.S. dollar advances vs major currencies as risk appetite fades
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

The earlier sell-off in the dollar came after the Bank of Japan maintained ultra-low interest rates. In afternoon trading, the U.S. currency rose against the commodity-linked currencies such as the Australian, New Zealand, and Canadian dollars, which sensitive to risk appetite. The Australian dollar fell 0.7% to US$0.6936, after hitting its highest since August last year. In Japan, the BOJ kept intact its yield curve control (YCC) targets, set at -0.1% for short-term interest rates and around 0% for the 10-year yield, by a unanimous vote. The dollar rose as much as 2.7% to 131.58 yen before gains were pared.

☆ Treasury yields, dollar fall after U.S. data; yen flat in wake of BOJ
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-18 | by ( Caroline Valetkevitch | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] A trader works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., January 5, 2023. The drop in U.S. retail sales, together with subsiding inflation, could encourage the Federal Reserve to further scale back the pace of its interest rate increases next month. The decision caused the yen to fall, with investors unwinding bets based on expectations the central bank would overhaul its yield control policy. But in late-morning U.S. trading, the dollar was little changed against the yen . "The PPI and retail sales numbers show that there are disinflationary pressures going on," said Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA in Washington.

☆ Yen retreats after BOJ policy tweak sparked surge
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

The BOJ decided to change its "yield curve control" policy on Tuesday even as it kept broad policy settings unchanged. It is letting 10-year yields move 50 basis points either side of its 0% target, wider than the previous 25-basis-point band. On Wednesday, the dollar was 0.4% higher against the yen , having plunged 3.8% in the previous session, its largest one-day drop against the Japanese currency in 24 years. The BOJ, long preoccupied with reviving price growth to avert a risk of deflation, has been an outlier among central banks this year. It has kept interest rates negative while other central banks have hiked hard to tame inflation and bolster domestic currencies against the U.S. dollar.

☆ Yen eases after BOJ policy tweak sparked surge
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-21 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

NEW YORK, Dec 21 (Reuters) - The yen eased in a choppy session on Wednesday, ceding some of the ground gained the previous day when a surprise policy tweak by the Bank of Japan lifted the Japanese currency by 4% against the dollar. The BOJ decided to change its "yield curve control" policy on Tuesday even as it kept broad policy settings unchanged. It is letting 10-year yields move 50 basis points either side of its 0% target, wider than the previous 25 basis point band. On Wednesday, the dollar was 0.2% higher against the yen , having plunged 3.8% in the previous session, its largest one day drop against the Japanese currency in 24 years. I don't think we're going to 150 (yen) anytime soon," Chandler said.

☆ Dollar slips vs euro on upbeat German business morale data
▼ + stars: | 2022-12-19 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/2] Banknotes of Japanese yen and U.S. dollar are seen in this illustration picture taken September 23, 2022. REUTERS/Florence Lo/IllustrationNEW YORK, Dec 19 (Reuters) - The dollar edged down against the euro as upbeat German business morale data supported the common currency, while a modest improvement in investors' appetite for riskier currencies weighed on the safe-haven dollar. German business morale rose more than expected in December as the outlook for Europe's largest economy improved despite the energy crisis and high inflation, a survey showed on Monday. The euro rose 0.2 % to $ 1.06085 , not far from the six-month high of $1.0737 touched last week. "I think the dollar is generally softer on slightly higher risk-on trading," said John Doyle, vice president of dealing and trading at Monex USA.

☆ Dollar on track for biggest plunge since 2015 as investors exit crowded positions
▼ + stars: | 2022-11-10 | by ( Saqib Iqbal Ahmed | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

[1/3] U.S. dollar banknotes are seen in this illustration taken July 17, 2022. The scope of the dollar's moves against many currencies on Thursday has been breathtaking, as investors pull back from what has been seen as an extremely crowded trade in foreign exchange markets. Against a basket of currencies , the dollar was off about 1.9%, on pace for its worst day in nearly seven years. The reversal of these trades could fuel further dollar weakness, analysts said, if further signs of economic softening lead investors to bet on a less hawkish Fed. Daniel Wood, portfolio manager on the emerging markets debt team at William Blair, has increased bets on emerging market currencies rising against the dollar.

The dollar pared gains after earlier climbing to a fresh 24-year peak versus the yen, holding above levels that prompted intervention by Japan last month. Sterling regained ground after a sharp fall the previous day as investors eyed the Bank of England's next steps. In currencies, sterling was last trading at $1.1091, up 1.17% on the day after going as low as $1.0925 earlier. read moreThe euro fell 0.04% against the dollar to $0.9699 while the Japanese yen weakened 0.67% versus the greenback to 146.84 per dollar. Gold eked out gains on Wednesday after five sessions of losses, although an uptick in the dollar kept prices in check as investors waited for the Fed minutes.

☆ Sept FOMC showed agreement on higher rates for longer
▼ + stars: | 2022-10-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

Many officials said they had raised their assessments of the path of interest rate increases that would likely be needed to achieve the committee's goals. Ultimately, they do think that you need to reach some very high interest rates in order to really cool down the economy. While inflation has peaked, the path to a 2% inflation rate will be long, windy and bumpy." "The Federal Reserve's current tone suggests it is committed to raising interest rates until the snake of inflation is dead." CHRIS ZACCARELLI, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, INDEPENDENT ADVISOR ALLIANCE, CHARLOTTE, NC"For the most part there's nothing to earth shattering in the Fed minutes.

British Pound Sterling and U.S. Dollar notes are seen in this June 22, 2017 illustration photo. Deutsche Bank's Currency Volatility Index – the historical volatility index of the major G7 currencies - jumped to a two-and-a-half year high of 13.55 on Monday. While Sterling and the yen have fared extremely poorly against the dollar, the greenback's meteoric rise has spared no major currency. Reuters GraphicsMoves have surprised long-time currency traders and investors. "Our team is working around the clock from multiple global locations," said Kamboj, adding he is not trading sterling because the pound's direction now depends entirely on how the Bank of England reacts.

U.S. One dollar banknotes are seen in front of displayed stock graph in this illustration taken, February 8, 2021. World stock markets remained on edge and the dollar maintained its firm tone, given expectations that the Fed would maintain its aggressive tightening path to contain uncomfortably high inflation. We do not think the Fed will hike 100 basis points this week, but the potential is still real," he added. The New Zealand dollar fell to its lowest level since May 2020 of US$0.5933, and was last at US$0.5937 . The Canadian dollar fell to its lowest level in almost two years at C$1.3324 per U.S. dollar .

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